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DBweekly Monthly WASDE, Dairy Outlook reports indicate MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO OUTPUT, PRICES Milk price averages & forecasts, $/cwt., Aug. 16, 2013 MILK PRICES BY THE QUARTER All milk Class III Class IV USDA 1 CME 2 USDA 1 CME 2 USDA 1 2009 12.83 11.36 10.89 2010 16.26 14.41 15.09 2011 20.14 18.37 19.04 2012 18.53 17.44 16.01 2013 Q1 19.50 17.44 17.44 17.71 17.71 Q2 19.57 18.04 18.04 18.62 18.62 Q3 19.60-19.90 17.83 17.75-18.05 19.10 18.75-19.15 Q4 19.65-20.25 17.48 17.95-18.55 18.88 18.05-18.75 Year* 19.60-19.80 17.66 17.80-18.00 18.58 18.25-18.55 2014 Q1 18.35-19.25 16.25 16.35-17.25 17.39 17.00-18.00 Q2 18.40-19.40 16.31 16.55-17.55 16.82 17.55-18.65 Q3 16.88 15.89 Q4 16.87 16.08 Year* 18.65-19.65 16.58 16.55-17.55 16.55 17.65-18.75 1/ USDA prices and forecasts from Livestock, Dairy & Poultry report (www.ers.usda.gov), issued Aug. 16, 2013. 2/ Simple average of Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures prices at close of trading on Aug. 15, 2013. * Average may include actual federal milk marketing order Class III and Class IV prices for affected months. USDA’s World Ag Supply & Demand Estimates report and Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook report raised projected 2013 milk production estimates by 100 million lbs. from a month earlier, but kept 2014 production estimates steady. • 2013 production and marketings were projected at 202.1 billion lbs. and 201.1 billion lbs., respectively. If realized, 2013 production and marketings would be up about 0.9% from 2012.  • 2014 production and marketings were projected at 204.5 billion lbs. and 203.6 billion lbs., respectively. If realized, 2014 production and marketings would be up about 1.2% from 2013. Exports were raised for 2013 on both a fat and skim-solids basis, as continued tight world supplies support higher exports. However, the export forecast for 2014 is unchanged. Fat-basis imports are raised for 2013, while the skim solid forecast is lower. Import forecasts for 2014 are unchanged. Fat-basis ending stock forecasts for 2013 and 2014 were lowered, as lower prices are expected 4 Dave Natzke | DairyBusiness Update dnatzke@dairybusiness.com to support greater butter use. The skim-basis stock forecast was unchanged for 2013, but lowered for 2014, as domestic demand for nonfat dry milk (NDM) is expected to improve. Robust demand for NDM supports increased price forecasts for 2013 and 2014. The cheese price forecast for 2013 is raised on relatively strong demand, but the forecast is unchanged for 2014. Butter prices are forecast lower for both 2013 and 2014, due to large stocks. The whey price forecast is unchanged from last month. As a result, the 2013 Class III price was raised from last month on the stronger cheese price, but the 2014 price is reduced on a lower butterfat price. The range of the 2013 Class IV price is narrowed for 2013, but is unchanged at the midpoint, as the lower butter price is largely offset by the higher NDM price. The 2014 Class IV price is unchanged. The all-milk price for 2013 was forecast at $19.60- $19.80/cwt.; and $18.65-$19.65/cwt. for 2014.
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